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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
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- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Economic Council, Georgia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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