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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
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- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- The University of Queensland
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Australian Coal Association
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
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