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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 25 October 13
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED TOTALLED 803.1 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
PANAMAX: RATES SLIP ACROSS BOTH HEMISPHERES
Handy
We were back from holidays but still not much enquiries in the market. Overall future direction is uncertain. Currently, ships passing Singap ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
SHIP PRICES ARE INCREASING ON THE BACK OF IMPROVED MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating from its recent highs, ending yesterday at 1,786 points, down 61 points on the day, with Capesizes leadin ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STABILITY - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has shown signs of stability this past week, with the sole exception of Capes, rates f ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding f ...
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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