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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 29 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 12.29 PER CENT MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.29 per cent week on week to 3.61 million mt for ...
Monday, 28 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL FOR Q3'14 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D,W-W & M-M
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.22 percept M-M on Friday 25 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Monday, 28 October 13
COAL SWAP FOR Q3' 2014 DELIVERY LOST ON D-D, W-W AND M-M
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.46 percept month on month on Friday 25 October 2 ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA STAY FIRM - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market showed tendency of softness with Cape and Panamax futures and physical soft.
The BDI was down by 12 pct week end ...
Saturday, 26 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RETREATING, BUT NEW BUILDING ORDERS KEEP ON PILING - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market kept on retreating this week, with the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI) falling to 1,708 points, down 78 on the ...
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- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Planning Commission, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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