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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Tuesday, 19 November 13
SHIP OWNER POUR MORE MONEY INTO DRY BULK CARRIER ACQUISITIONS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The recent dry bulk market's rally, coupled with an expected fall in oversupply and robust cargo demand has boosted ship owners' optimism on the l ...
Monday, 18 November 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP LOST ON WEEK; MARGINALLY GAINED ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 1.25 pmt month on month on Friday 15 Novemb ...
Sunday, 17 November 13
Q4' 14 API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP CLOSED $ 3.43 PMT (4.34 %) HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 SWAP
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.05 percept d-d on Friday 15 November 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 16 November 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FIRM DUE TO STRONG COAL ACTIVITIES
COALspot.com: The Cape and Panamax index was down this week and pulling down the BDI by about 5 pct. BDI was closed at 1507 points on Friday 1 ...
Friday, 15 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LINGERING ON, DESPITE PREDICTIONS OF NEW IMMINENT RALLY PRIOR TO THE YEAR'S END - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market hasn't yet managed to stage a new comeback after its retreat from the recent multiyear highs. Yesterday, the industry's benchm ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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