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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 20 November 13
PANAMAX MARKET RESUMED ITS NEGATIVE MOVEMENT FOR A SECOND WEEK IN A ROW - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com: The recovery noted the week prior in the dry Bulk market proved to be short-lived, as the BDI slipped back down to the low 1,500 point ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
TAIPOWER TO IMPORT 0.825 MMT OF 5000 GAR COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 825,000 metric tons of general sub-bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,000 ...
Wednesday, 20 November 13
CAPES AND PANAMAXES SOFTENING; SMALLER SIZE SEGMENTS FIRMING FURTHER - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable- )
The BDI has closed off the week on the red, with rates for Capes and Panamaxes softening and those fo ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP 1.98% IN NOVEMBER
COALspot.com - The Ministry of Energy & Mineral Resources of Indonesia has increased government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 1.52 / MT ...
Tuesday, 19 November 13
WEEKLY COAL EXPORTS FROM NEWCASTLE PORT INCREASED BY 20.59%
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 18, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.92& ...
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
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