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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Sunday, 24 November 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES REMAINED FIRM FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA AND CHINA - SOLYM
COALspot.com: The freight market was fairly steady except for the Supramax in SE Asia region which continued to remain firm. The BDI was down by 1.5 ...
Friday, 22 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET STILL LACKLUSTRE, DESPITE PROJECTIONS OF A NEW RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We might still be about six weeks far from the end of the year, but the projected by many analysts upcoming rally of the dry bulk market, hasn't ye ...
Friday, 22 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION DOWN 1.3% W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.5 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
TAIPOWER TO PROCURE 750K MT OF 5500 GAR BITUMINOUS COAL FOR MAY - AUGUST 2014
COALspot.com: Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 750,000 metric tons of bituminous coal with calorific value not lesser than 5,500 kcal/kg on a ...
Thursday, 21 November 13
CAPESIZE : THE DOWNWARD TREND HAS TURNED INTO NOTABLE SPOT AND PERIOD IMPROVEMENT - FEARNLEYS
Handy
The Atlantic market experienced a general rate increase for most trades this week. More cargoes in the market and chrts looking for prompt t ...
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Parliament of New Zealand
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
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