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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Friday, 15 November 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.59% WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer, produced approximately 19.8 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Friday, 15 November 13
TAIWAN'S PLASTICS GROUP FORMOSA TO IMPORT 1.37 MILLION TONS OF COAL FOR Q1' 14
COALspot.com: Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for total 1.37 million mt of coal for 1Q’ 14 for its various plants in Taiwan, ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
KOMIPO TO BUY 270K MT OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q2' 14
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids through International Open Bidding for 140,000 Metric Tons (MT) of sub-bituminous coal ...
Thursday, 14 November 13
PANAMAX : MARKET SHOULD BE AROUND USD 11500 FOR 1 YEAR - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Atlantic market has picked up this week with prompt ships able USG for November dates coming off and chrts need to pay up in order to cov ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
Y'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP MOVING AT SNAIL-SPEED
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’2014 delivery gained 2.95 percept month on month on Friday ...
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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