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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 13 November 13
Q3' 14 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS CLOSED HIGHER THAN Q1' 14 PRICES
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1 14 delivery gained 0.55 percept W-W on Friday 8 November 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
THE SOFTENING HAS AFFECTED THE BIGGER SIZE SEGMENTS; SMALLER ONES STILL APPEAR TO BE VERY STABLE - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of back to back weekly declines, the dry bulk market has finally reversed its negative course. We believe that there should ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS REVERSED ITS NEGATIVE COURSE - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Firm+ / Dry: Stable+ )
The Dry Bulk market has reversed its negative course this past week with rates for Capes making up fo ...
Wednesday, 13 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS PLUNGE 12.40% IN W/E 10 NOVEMBER FROM THE PRIOR WEEK
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 11, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totaled 2.42 ...
Monday, 11 November 13
TAMIL NADU STATE OWNED POWER GENERATOR TO IMPORT 3.7 MMT OF 6000 GAD COAL
COALspot.com - TANGEDCO, Tamil Nadu Generation & Distribution Corporation Ltd, Tamil Nadu state owned power generator & distributor intends ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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