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Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
 China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's President of Global Markets, Mr William Durbin, said that global government policies to reduce carbon emissions will not prevent a hydrocarbon world as coal will surpass oil as the dominant fuel later this decade. China and India's aggressive power requirements will be responsible for coal's burgeoning role in energy but US, Europe and Asia will still contribute to coal demand. As such, Wood Mackenzie expects existing carbon policies to have a muted impact. Instead, the pace of coal demand will be influenced more by local governments of emerging markets needing to balance economic growth, energy demand and environmental needs.
Mr Durbin says, "China's economic growth will continue to be driven by urbanisation and industrialisation as the government seeks to improve housing as well as create economic opportunities. At the same time, the pursuit of increased national wealth is needed to support a shift to growth based on consumption. Coal will be used to fuel the growth because, unlike alternatives, it is plentiful and affordable. Consequently, China's demand for coal will almost single-handedly propel the growth of coal as the dominant global fuel."
"Even with environmental concerns and global pressures, China and India just do not have the same latitude that more developed economies have to focus on carbon emissions at the risk of reducing economic development from higher cost alternative fuels and technologies. China could have cleaner air and use more coal to fuel its growth if current emission control technologies were deployed and used more effectively"
Global demand for oil in the year 2000 was 3,500 million tonnes of oil equivalent (Mtoe) compared to coal at 2,300Mtoe. By 2010, coal demand grew to almost 3,600Mtoe, just behind oil demand of 4,000Mtoe. Looking forward to 2020, Wood Mackenzie expects global coal consumption to reach 4,500Mtoe, overtaking oil which reaches 4,400Mtoe. This is a 25% growth in coal consumption from 2010-2020 with two-thirds of this growth being driven by Chinese coal-fired power generation.
China's power requirements will increase from 5,000 Terawatts per hour (TWh) in 2012 to 8,600TWh in 2020. Coal fired power generation accounts for 46% of that growth. Mr Durbin explains China's preference towards coal, "Firstly, there is limited availability of natural gas supplies due to the rapid pace of domestic demand growth and little progress in developing unconventional gas. Secondly, LNG and pipeline imports are two to three times more costly than domestic and imported coal. And thirdly, renewables cannot provide base load power. This leaves coal as the primary energy source."
Outside of China and India, global coal demand will be sustained. Mr Durbin says," If you take China and India out of the equation, what is more surprising is that under current regulations, coal demand in the rest of the world will remain at current levels. Even though natural gas and renewables make up the bulk of incremental power capacity in Europe, the US and other parts of Asia; coal demand will be sustained because of its price competitiveness."
In Europe, the struggling economy and low coal prices has rendered the European Union (EU) Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) ineffective. The carbon price will need to reach €40/t to encourage fuel switching, which is unlikely before 2020. In North America, despite plentiful quantities of low cost natural gas, relatively inexpensive coal remains competitive in many locations. Southeast Asia has traditionally relied on low cost domestic gas for power needs but as gas supplies struggle to keep pace with demand, coal will become the dominant fuel into power by 2020. Lastly, throughout Northeast Asia, high fuel import costs, security of supply and nuclear issues will support growth in coal generation going forward.
Mr Durbin concludes, "We are unlikely to escape a future dominated by fossil fuels any time soon. And while carbon policies have their role in the more developed economies like Europe and the US, developing economies must first implement and enforce environmental regulations that limit other detrimental gases like sulphur dioxide, nitrogen dioxide , mercury and particulate matter before adopting carbon policies that rely on higher cost fuels or technologies. Hence, local issues in developing countries will do more to influence government policy as they will motivate a need for balancing economic development while managing localised environmental impacts in the foreseeable future."
Editor’s notes:
Wood Mackenzie is the most comprehensive source of knowledge about the world’s energy and metals industries. We analyse and advise on every stage along the value chain - from discovery to delivery, and beyond - to provide clients with the commercial insight that makes them stronger. For more information visit: www.woodmac.com
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Wednesday, 27 November 13
SHIP OWNERS ONCE AGAIN TURN TO DRY BULK CARRIERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Ship owners once again turned to more dry bulk carrier ordering over the course of the past week, as more and more appear convinced of the industry ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
EWP INVITES COAL BIDS FOR 2014 - 2018 DELIVERIES
COALspot.com: Korea East-West Power Co. Ltd (EWP) invited bids to supply 130,000MT of min 5,600kcal/kg (Sub)-bituminous Coal on NCV basis for March ...
Tuesday, 26 November 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS SLIP 22.62% W-W
COALspot.com: In the week ended November 25, power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from the port of Newcastle in Queensland, totalled 2.26 ...
Monday, 25 November 13
THE SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP MOVEMENT IN YEAR 2014 IS STILL FAR FROM PROMISING
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained $ 2.54 pmt month on month on Friday 22 Novemb ...
Sunday, 24 November 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS FOR Q4' 14 DELIVERY PRICE SHOWS A NEGATIVE TREND WEEK ON WEEK AND FLAT ON D-D
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q1’ 14 delivery gained 0.13 percept d-d on Friday 22 November 2013. The CFR South ...
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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