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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 13 June 13
HANDY: SHORT PERIOD WERE FIXED AT AROUND USD 9000 LEVEL
Handy
Despite falling rates for bigger sizes, the Supras in Atlantic are seeing some improvements with fresh biz. US Gulf positions fetching tick a ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
BIMCO EXPECTS SUBDUED CAPESIZE EARNINGS FOR THE COMING WEEKS - HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Bulk is not only about China even though it is a key driver. In this section, we have taken a closer look at the European seaborne coal markets, whi ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
RIO TINTO AGREES SALE OF EAGLE PROJECT FOR AN ESTIMATED US$325 MILLION IN CASH
COALspot.com - Rio Tinto has reached a binding agreement to sell its Eagle project to Lundin Mining Corporation for an estimated US$325 million in c ...
Thursday, 13 June 13
HARD COAL IMPORTS RISE SHARPLY IN GERMANY IN Q1 2013 - COAL IMPORTERS ASSOCIATION
Coal-fired Power Plants in Germany: Pillars of the Grid and the Energy Turnaround; Hard Coal Consumption and Hard Coal Imports Rise Sharply in Germa ...
Wednesday, 12 June 13
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIDES TO 2013 LOW
COALspot.com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference continues to take its lumps this month, dropping about 0.54 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian ...
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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