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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 June 13
COAL: NO SIGN OF RECOVERY - GABRIELLA
COALspot.com: We attended the 19th Annual Coaltrans Asia Conference, where we found most of the speakers were not very optimistic on the outlook for ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED MORE COAL WEEK ENDED 11 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,104,509 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 11 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Tuesday, 11 June 13
OUTLOOK FOR CAPESIZES LOOKS GRIM, DESPITE FALLING IRON ORE PRICES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Things aren't looking all that rosy for the dry bulk market, despite a stronger volume of iron ore imports during the months of March and April, as ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP IS UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 0.03 percent week on week but gained 0.07 pe ...
Sunday, 09 June 13
IRON ORE DEMAND: WEAK; COAL MOVEMENT: STEADY TO INDIA AND CHINA - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The freight market was fairly steady with BDI up by 0.37 per cent closed at 812 points this week.
The Cape index was also ended in ...
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- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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