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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 07 June 13
MEDITERRANEAN COAL MARKETS
Press Release: 3rd International Conference Mediterranean Coal Markets will be held on 16-17th of September 2013, Istanbul, Turkey, Ceylan Intercont ...
Friday, 07 June 13
US'S COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED BY 0.54 PER CENT THE WEEK ENDED JUNE 1
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 06 June 13
WE ARE SEEING SOME FRESH INDO COAL TO CHINA AND INDIA - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
In the Atlantic, the Gulf remains firm for the next week with a few orders in the market. The Supramaxes are seeing around low 20k for fronth ...
Wednesday, 05 June 13
DON'T AVOID PAYING COAL ROYALTY TO THE GOVERNMENT - INDONESIAN ENERGY MINISTER
COALspot.com – “Every country has the right to make policies to protect their national interests”, Energy and Mineral Resources Mi ...
Tuesday, 04 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 2.56 MILLION TONS OF COAL IN A WEEK
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,563,596 tons of coal for week ended 0700 hours 3 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. said ...
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- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- PTC India Limited - India
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
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- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- White Energy Company Limited
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
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- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
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- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
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- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
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