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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 19 June 13
NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 16.05 PERCENT LESS COAL W/E 17 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,606,071 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 17 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
Sunday, 16 June 13
WEAK DEMAND KEEPS COAL PRICES LOW
COALspot.com - Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average July 2013 delivery have lost 2.94 percent week on week but gained 0.06 percent ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
S7 AND S8 ROUTES ARE EXPECTED TO BE STEADY NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - This week freight movement was fairly firm with news of China is rebuilding iron ore stockpiles, and ease import rules. Cape and Pana ...
Saturday, 15 June 13
SHIPPING CONFIDENCE REACHES HIGHEST LEVEL FOR TWO AND A HALF YEARS - MOORE STEPHENS
Overall confidence levels in the shipping industry rose to their highest level for two and a half years in the three months ended May 2013, accordin ...
Friday, 14 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 18.20 MILLION SHORT TONS W/E 8 JUNE 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
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- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
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