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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 24 June 13
INDONESIA COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 2013 DELIVERY GAINS WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com – Coal prices for immediate supply contracts have started moving up, but prices for next year supply shows a negative trend ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
BDI CROSSED ITS PSYCHOLOGICAL BARRIER THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The BDI crossed the psychological barrier of 1000 points after many months and closed at 1,027 points, which were up by 14.11 pct wee ...
Sunday, 23 June 13
SHIP PRICES NOT FOLLOWING FREIGHT MARKET FUNDAMENTALS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Although it's been the case in many occasions in the past, it appears that ship prices haven't been quite following freight market fundamentals, i ...
Friday, 21 June 13
U.S. COAL PRODUCTION INCREASED WEEK ON WEEK, EIA SAYS
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totalled approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 20 June 13
CAPESIZE : FINALLY A SUBSTANTIAL IMPROVEMENT IN RATES! - FEARNLEYS A.S
Handy
Atlantic market kept a steady curve from last week. US Gulf positions fetched tick above USD 21k for Cont/Skaw direction, and vessels fixed f ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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