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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 27 June 13
US COAL EXPORTS BEATS CHINESE COAL IMPORTS AS THE MOST INFLUENTIAL COAL TRADE - BIMCO
The influence of American coal exports on seaborne transportation has grown significantly over the past decade. In 2002, the US exported 20.1 millio ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
HANDY : USD 12000 FOR SPOT COAL INDO/CHINA AND AROUND USD 13000 INDO/ECI - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Atlantic rates hold well. Continent to Far East is worth more than USD 14k daily whilst USG to Far East pay 23/24k a day. On the route from B ...
Thursday, 27 June 13
DRY BULK CARRIERS DOMINATE NEWBUILDING ORDERS AS SHIP OWNERS ARE ENCOURAGED BY LATEST FREIGHT RATE RALLY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Newbuilding orders for dry bulk carriers were already high, compared to last year, prior to the latest rally of the Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which ha ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
CAPESIZE MARKET TO REMAIN BULLISH SAYS ANALYST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been experiencing its long-awaited rally, with the Baltic Dry Index, the industry's benchmark rising to healthier levels fo ...
Tuesday, 25 June 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED OUT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com - Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,101,378 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 24 June 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. ...
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- White Energy Company Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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