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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 12 July 13
U.S. PRODUCED 18.40 MMST COAL WEEK ENDED 6 JULY 2013
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 18.40 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 11 July 13
PANAMAX: PACIFIC ROUND PAY AROUND $6,500/D; ATLANTIC ROUND VOYAGE PAY AROUND US$ 10,000/D - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market is quiet, July date cargoes remain unfixed as there is a gap between what owners aiming and charterers willing to pay. There ...
Wednesday, 10 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL STRUGGLING TO SURVIVE - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : With the first half of the year now behind us and, as expected, most shipping segments in the dry bulk market are struggling to survi ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
COAL PRICE REMAINS SLUGGISH - TRIMEGAH
COALspot.com - Newcastle coal price has reached US$ 76.30/ton (-15.9% YTD), bringing YTD’13 average to stand at US$ 87.90/ton, 6.80% lower tha ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 27.53% ON WEEK TO 2.97 MILLION MT
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports up 27.53% to 2.97 million tons W-o-W.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,974,715 tons of coal for the ...
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
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