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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 09 July 13
CAPESIZE: SHOT UP; PANAMAXES: NOT SO LUCK; SUPRAS: SLIGHTLY BETTER; HANDIES: SOFT - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com : June 2013 Recap
A renewed Capesize market this month (June 2013) was the cause for much of the overall noteworthy performanc ...
Tuesday, 09 July 13
THE 11TH DEEP COAL PROCESSING FORUM 2013
Press Release : The 11th Deep Coal Processing Forum 2013 will be held in November Beijing China.
CDMC Events is pleased to announce that 11 ...
Monday, 08 July 13
ECO-FRIENDLY COAL FOR CHINA - VALUE FOR THE ENVIRONMENT AND VALUE FOR THE POWER GENERATOR - BY: LINDSAY JUNIPER
COALspot.com : January 2013 saw an episode of extreme particulate pollution in Beijing 35 times worse than the safe level recommended by the World H ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
FREIGHT MARKET IS EXPECTED TO BE SOFT TO STABLE NEXT WEEK- VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market softened for the week ended 5 July 2013, and experienced a decline in all sectors, including BDI. Bulk dry Index d ...
Sunday, 07 July 13
COAL PRICES REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Coal swaps for the year 2014 indicate that, the pressure on coal prices will continue at least until next year. Ave ...
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- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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