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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 19 July 13
U.S.COAL PRODUCTION TOTALED APPROXIMATELY 19.60 MMST WEEK ENDED JULY 13
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 19.60 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 19 July 13
TNPL IS LOOKING FOR 300 K MT OF 6000 GAD COAL FOR FIVE MONTH
COALspot.com - Tamil Nadu Newsprint & Papers Ltd. , an Indian paper maker, is seeking 300,000 metric tons ± 5% (In 5 shipments about 60,0 ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
3RD ANNUAL FLOATING TERMINALS, INDONESIA
Commercial applications for offshore transshipment facilities
Floating Terminal solutions are increasingly being deployed by miners, independent ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
THE CAPE MARKET APPEARS TO BE HOLDING FIRM - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
In the Pacific, market maintained similar levels during the week. There is several Indo coal orders in the market, ships passing Singapore fi ...
Thursday, 18 July 13
DRY BULK MARKETS RETAINS RECENT GAINS, MOVES SIDEWAYS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on moving sideways this week, as evidenced by the latest trends of the industry's benchmark, the Baltic Dry Index (BDI ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
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