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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 05 July 13
THE DRY BULK MARKET IS GOING FROM STRENGTH TO STRENGTH - INTERMODAL
The Capesize sector has been one that has gone through a wild rollercoaster of emotions this past decade, ranging from the exuberance witnessed duri ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
CHALLENGER SIGNS FORMAL EXCLUSIVE MINING AND MARKETING AGREEMENT FOR ABBR PROJECT IN CENTRAL KALIMANTAN
COALspot.com - Challenger Deep Resources Corp., through its subsidiary PT Bestindo Energy has signed the formal exclusive Mining and Marketing agree ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
ASX LISTED QBL TO ACQUIRE INTERESTS IN MOZAMBIQUE COAL EXPLORATION LICENSES
- QBL to acquire interests in two Mozambique exploration licences prospective for coal
- Licenses located in the highly prospective Zambezi basin, ...
Thursday, 04 July 13
HANDY : INDO/CHINA, CHARTERERS RATING AROUND US$ 10,000 - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Feast market firmed slightly up as mid-July cargos entered the market, but charterers seems not in hurry to cover them and looking for ch ...
Wednesday, 03 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS DIP 24.79 PER CENT WOW
COALspot.com - Newcastle Coal exports fell 24.79% to 2.33 million tons WoW.
Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,332,513 tons of coal for the ...
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- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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