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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 July 13
NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FELL 3.85% ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,860,149 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 15 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Wednesday, 17 July 13
TORN BETWEEN A CREDIT CRUNCH AND SUSTAINABLE GROWTH - GEORGE DERMATIS
COALspot.com: In 2012 China expanded at a rate of 7.8%, its worst annual performance in 13 years, raising criticism over the newly appointed governm ...
Tuesday, 16 July 13
TAKE - OR - PAY CONTRACTS CONTINUE TO INCENTIVISE AUSTRALIAN COAL PRODUCERS DESPITE POTENTIAL NEGATIVE CASH MARGINS - WOOD MACKENZIE
Australia's coal production has continued to grow, despite lower coal prices in 2013. Global investors and suppliers are therefore questioning whet ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT HAS REVISED DOWN ITS JULY BENCH-MARK COAL PRICE TO US$ 81.69 PER MT
COALspot. com - Indonesian Coal Price Reference dropped 3.75 % and hitting a 2013 low. The Indonesian government has revised down its owned coal ben ...
Monday, 15 July 13
INDO COAL SWAPS ARE STRUGGLING FOR RIGHT DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Indo coal swaps are struggling to find the right direction. Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 d ...
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
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- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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- Parliament of New Zealand
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
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