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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 25 July 13
CAPESIZE : PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC RATES ARE HOLDING STEADY - FEARNLEYS AS
Handy
The Far East market remains quiet even if some Indo coal trip orders were fed in the market at early this week. Prompt ships passing Singapor ...
Thursday, 25 July 13
SUMMER LULL CHIPPING AWAY RECENT GAINS IN DRY BULK FREIGHT RATES - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
In what seems to be establishing as a permanent trend, at least for the time being, the dry bulk market kept on retreating yesterday, even if this r ...
Tuesday, 23 July 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORTS CLIMB 17.82% ON WEEK, PORT'S DATA SHOWS
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 3,369,865 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 22 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 22 July 13
DRY BULK MARKET DIFFICULT TO MAINTAIN POSITIVE DRIVE CLAIMS SHIPBROKER - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has seen a significant recovery in recent weeks, leading most ship classes to earnings above their operating expenses, thus brin ...
Monday, 22 July 13
INDO COAL SWAP FOR AUGUST 13 DELIVERY GAINED ON WEEK BUT LOST ON DAY AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average August 2013 delivery slightly up on week but fell on day and month on Fri ...
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
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