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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 30 July 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE SHIPPED 12.58 PERCENT LESS COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Newcastle port in Australia has loaded 2,945,848 tons of coal for the week ended 0700 hours 29 July 2013, Newcastle Port Corp. s ...
Monday, 29 July 13
INDONESIA'S ENERGY NEEDS COULD SPELL GOOD NEWS FOR TANKER OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
Despite abundant energy resources, Indonesia has still failed meet its own demand, which led to a rising import of crude. According to the latest we ...
Sunday, 28 July 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP UP SLIGHTLY FOR SEPTEMBER CARGOES
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average September 2013 delivery slightly up on day and week but fell on month on ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
CEPL INDIA TO BAG 0.3 MILLION TONS OF COAL SUPPLY ORDER FROM TNPL
COALspot.com - An India based coal trader Coastal Energy Private Limited has offered the lowest price of US$ 73.00 per metric ton for calorific valu ...
Saturday, 27 July 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY - CAPT.REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market seemed to soften this week with BDI , Cape and Panamax indices dropped average 5 percent on week.
The BDI was d ...
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- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Planning Commission, India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
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