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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 31 July 13
COAL GASIFICATION
IBC’s Coal Gasification conference explores the opportunities for coal gasification investment and development in Asia.
With depleting dome ...
Wednesday, 31 July 13
SUPRAMAX : THE PACIFIC BASIN WAS MOVING ON A POSITIVE PATH - EVA TZIMA
COALspot.com: Cape - Despite holding their ground fairly well early on in the week, Capes in the Atlantic basin gave in to the mounting pressure fro ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
HARD COAL ON THE WAY TO BECOMING THE WORLD'S MOST IMPORTANT ENERGY SOURCE - VDKI
Press Release : Hard coal continued to be the world’s fastest-growing fossil primary energy source in 2012. It covered about 28% of the world ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
WIJAYA TRI UTAMA PURCHASES MICROCOAL TECHNOLOGIES' CLEAN COAL UPGRADING FACILITY
- First MCI commercial scale application of proprietary microwave technology to upgrade coal thermal output and reduce pollutants
- MicroCoal to re ...
Tuesday, 30 July 13
KOMIPO INVITES BIDS FOR 520,000 MT OF 5,700 KCAL/KG COAL ON NAR BASIS FOR H1, 2014
COALspot.com : Korea Midland Power Co., Ltd. has invited bids for 520,000 Metric Tons (MT) of coal with calorific value 5,700 kcal/kg on NAR basis f ...
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
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