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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 August 13
GBCE SUCCESSFUL IN UPGRADING LOW RANK INDONESIAN COAL ON INDUSTRIAL SCALE
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) has annoused that, the company has successfully upgraded 2,426 tonnes of low rank 4,018 kcal NAR Ind ...
Monday, 12 August 13
INDIA - SAFE SHIPMENT OF IRON ORE FINES FROM INDIAN PORTS - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
As Members may be aware, in 2009 two ships, the ‘Asian Forest’ and the ‘Black Rose’, capsized and sank following the liquefa ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
INDONESIAN COAL SWAPS : FLAT ON DAY
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery flat on day due to holidays in Indonesia, Malaysia & ...
Sunday, 11 August 13
SUPRAMAX FREIGHT RATES FROM INDONESIA TO INDIA CONTINUED TO BE SOFT - VISTAAR
COALspot.com : The freight market was soft this week with all indices down , the reason could be long weekend holidays in Indonesia, Singapore and M ...
Saturday, 10 August 13
MOODY'S: OUTLOOK FOR US COAL INDUSTRY CHANGES TO STABLE FROM NEGATIVE
Moody's Investors Service has changed its outlook for the US coal industry to stable from negative, the rating agency says in a new report, "U ...
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
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- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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