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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 18 August 13
INDO - INDIA FREIGHT EXPECTED TO BE FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market was up this week with the BDI gaining more than 10 pct due to strong Cape Sector.
The BDI was closed at 1,102 p ...
Friday, 16 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION SLIGHTLY UP ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.10 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 15 August 13
CAPESIZE : TRENDS SOMETIMES SHIFT WITH NO PRIOR WARNING - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The influence of the summer holidays across Europe was felt in the Atlantic basin this week. Very little activity and a growing list of avail ...
Wednesday, 14 August 13
ANOTHER WEEK IN THE RED FOR DRY BULK CARRIERS - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Stable- )
Another week in the red for Dry Bulk carriers with the market losing further steam as fewer an ...
Tuesday, 13 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMP 30.61 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 30.61 per cent week on week to 2.95 million mt for ...
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
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