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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 10 August 13
DEMOLITION ACTIVITY TO BE CRUCIAL AGAIN IN PROVIDING SUPPORT TO THE DRY BULK MARKET - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
We appear to have forgotten demolition activity this year, with the Baltic Dry Index gaining traction in the latter part of the second half and emer ...
Friday, 09 August 13
US PRODUCED 4.00 PERCENT LESS COAL ON WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.00 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
HANDY : NO POSITIVE SENTIMENT FOR THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
No positive sentiment for the Far East market. There are a number of ships coming open in SE Asia this week and owners rating mid/high USD 8k ...
Thursday, 08 August 13
MALAYSIA HOSTS THIRD ANNUAL ASIAN SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL USERS' GROUP CONFERENCE
Press Release : The third Annual Asian Sub-Bituminous Coal Users’ Group (ASBCUG) conference convenes Sept. 30-Oct. 3 at the Eastern & Orie ...
Wednesday, 07 August 13
HANDIES : FINDING IT DIFFICULT TO SUSTAIN THEIR PREVIOUS LEVELS - KONSTANTINOS KONTOMICHIS
Broker's insight
by Konstantinos Kontomichis,
SnP Broker
Entering the most predictable month of the year, as expected the seasonal effects ha ...
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- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
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