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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 06 August 13
UNLEASHING SHALE GAS POTENTIAL AS A GLOBAL ENERGY GAME CHANGER
In its 4th year running, the Annual Shale Gas Conference will bring leaders from North American shale gas operators, key Asian regulators, multi ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
GBCE APPOINTS BENJAMIN WILEY AS NEW MANAGING DIRECTOR
COALspot.com : GB Clean Energy Ltd. (GBCE) announced today that Mr. Benjamin Wiley has been appointed as Managing Director.
Mr. Wiley has ...
Tuesday, 06 August 13
AUSTRALIAN NEWCASTLE PORT'S COAL EXPORTS FALL 23.16 PERCENT ON WEEK TO 2.26 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 15.8 percent week on week to 2.26 million mt for ...
Monday, 05 August 13
PAPERLESS TRADING (ELECTRONIC BILLS OF LADING) - FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ("FAQS") - UK P&I CLUB
A number of Members have contacted the Club with queries regarding the use of electronic bills of lading and any potential consequences for P&I ...
Monday, 05 August 13
INDO GOVERNMENT'S DECLARED HBA IN AUGUST '13 FALL TO LOWEST LEVEL SINCE JANUARY '10
COALspot. com - HBA fell to US$ 76.70 this month, the lowest since January 2010. Indonesian Coal Price Reference fell 6.11% and hitting a 2013 ...
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- The University of Queensland
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Australian Coal Association
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
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