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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 21 August 13
DRY BULK SHIPPING - POSITIVE WINDOW FOR CAPESIZE OWNERS - PETER SAND
By: Peter Sand, Chief Shipping Analyst, BIMCO
Demand:
“Expect the unexpected from the dry bulk market” was what we wrote last time ar ...
Wednesday, 21 August 13
RATES FOR CAPES MOVED DECISIVELY NORTH THIS WEEK - INTERMODAL
COALspot.com - Right when the BDI seemed ready for another dive below the 1000 points level, the Dry Bulk market made significant comeback this week ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS FALL 19.15 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 19.15 per cent week on week to 2.39 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 20 August 13
CAPESIZE RATES MORE SENSITIVE TO DEMAND - COMMODORE RESEARCH & CONSULTANCY
COALspot.com : Approximately 71.50 million tons of iron ore is now stockpiled at Chinese ports, 900,000 tons (-1%) less than a week ago, Commodore R ...
Sunday, 18 August 13
SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP : ON POSITIVE DIRECTION ON DAY, WEEK AND MONTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 1.83 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
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- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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