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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 26 August 13
CARRIAGE OF COAL CARGOES FROM KALIMANTAN, INDONESIA - WEST OF ENGLAND P&I CLUB
The Club has recently been advised by consulting scientists and engineers Dr J H Burgoyne and Partners (International) Limited that the number of in ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL: HEADING TO NORTH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery US$ 2.39 up month on month. The swap was moved positive ...
Sunday, 25 August 13
THE FREIGHT MARKET S7 & S8 SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BE STEADY/FIRM NEXT WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com - The freight market continued to be firm with all indices moved positive except for Panamax which was slightly down (2 pct down).
T ...
Friday, 23 August 13
US PRODUCED MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.80 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 22 August 13
PANAMAX : PERIOD MARKET IS STILL BEING LED BY STRONGER SENTIMENT IN THE FFA'S - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
This week started slowly as expected. Indo biz now rate APS around 7k +60k to china and around 8k+80k to India. However, there are some ships ...
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- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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