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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 30 August 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FELL 0.48 PERCENT WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.70 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
HANDY: THE PACIFIC MARKET STARTED HEALTHY THIS WEEK - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The Pacific market started healthy this week. We have seen many bauxite, iron ore and few coal fixtures. Ships passing Singapore were able to ...
Thursday, 29 August 13
NO RATING IMPACT ON INDONESIAN ENERGY COMPANIES FROM RUPIAH DEPRECIATION - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings says the credit profiles of rated Indonesian energy and utilities companies, including thermal coal producers, will largely remain una ...
Wednesday, 28 August 13
THE BDI HAS MOVED TO LEVELS CONSIDERABLY STRONGER THAN THE BEGINNING OF THE YEAR - INTERMODAL
By George Bassakos
SnP Broker - Intermodal
We have already reached the end of August and whilst students are preparing themselves for another sc ...
Tuesday, 27 August 13
AUSTRALIA NEWCASTLE COAL EXPORTS JUMPED 15.59 PERCENT ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 15.59 per cent week on week to 2.76 million mt for ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
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