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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 04 September 13
RBCT SHIPPED 16.18 PERCENT MORE COAL IN JULY
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal South African as well as in the world has shipped 6,162, ...
Wednesday, 04 September 13
SUPRAS AND HANDIES : INDONESIAN COAL CARGOES ARE SUPPORTING HEALTHY ACTIVITY LEVELS - INTERMODAL
The Dry Bulk market has pooled back a bit this week after firming for two weeks in a row. The BDI is s holding above 1,100 points and despite the sm ...
Tuesday, 03 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 22.93 PER CENT MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 22.93 per cent week on week to 3.39 million mt for ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
COAL SWAP SHOWS MIXED TREND
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swaps (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery 1.25 percent up month on month. The swap was moved posit ...
Sunday, 01 September 13
INDONESIA TO INDIA SPOT FREIGHT STAYS FIRM THIS WEEK - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to be firm with even though the BDI and Cape index dropped by about 3 pct week on week.
The BDI was do ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
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