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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 06 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW YEAR-HIGHS ON THE BACK OF INCREASED CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The dry bulk market has been on the rise once again, but this time around any new increase of freight rates translates into new year-highs, thus bri ...
Friday, 06 September 13
US PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 90.80 MMST OF COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.90 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
INDONESIAN COAL EXPORTS UP BY 6.72 PERCENT IN JULY
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the world's largest multi grade coal exporter shipped 35.268* million tons of coal in July 2013. Indonesian coal exp ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
HANDY: NICKEL ORE WAS PUSHING THE FAR EAST MARKET - FEARNLEYS
Handy
Nickel Ore was pushing the Feast market, several ships were fixed from low teens to $14k. Indo/India was still supported by bauxite, while th ...
Thursday, 05 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON A HIGH ROLL, MAINLY THANKS TO CAPESIZE APPETITE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Capesize owners have been rejoycing on the back of renewed optimism for the further rise in the dry bulk market's freight rates, especially when on ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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