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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 10 September 13
COAL EXPORTS AT AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SLIP 30.31% ON WEEK TO 2.36 MMT
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port down 30.31 per cent week on week to 2.36 million mt f ...
Tuesday, 10 September 13
WORLDWIDE COAL CONSUMPTION RISES SHARPLY - RA DR. ERICH SCHMITZ
By: RA Dr. Erich Schmitz, Verein der Kohlenimporteure (Germany Coal Importers Association)
World hard coal market in the first half of 2013: worl ...
Monday, 09 September 13
REBOUND IN NEWBUILDING ORDERS HASN'T HURT DRY BULK MARKET PROSPECTS, BUT SHIP OWNERS SHOULD STILL BE CAUTIOUS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Since the start of 2013 and up until the end of August, one thing has really caught the headlines in the dry bulk market, except of course, the frei ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
Q3 2014 THERMAL COAL SWAPS : STEADY DIRECTION
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery up 1.88 percent month on month. The swap was moved ...
Sunday, 08 September 13
BALTIC INDEX UP ON HIGHER CAPESIZE, PANAMAX RATES
COALspot.com : The freight market continued saw one of the biggest rally last week with Cape Size taking the lead followed by Panamax.
The BDI wa ...
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- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Planning Commission, India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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