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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 12 September 13
PANAMAX : PACIFIC ROUNDS ARE NOW REPORTED BETWEEN USD 13K AND 15K PER DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore is a key support SE Asia/Feast rate at the moment; vessel in N.China were fixed around USD 11-12k, ships in mid China can expect a ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
CAPESIZE MARKET WILL BECOME EVEN TIGHTER - JEFFREY LANDSBERG
COALspot.com : While it is no secret that current capesize availability has become tight and has caused capesize rates to surge, availability is set ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
OVER THE WORST? WE MIGHT FIND OUT THIS WEEK - BIMCO
The shipping market has a spring in its step, even as summer draws to a close. There is it seems, confidence that finally, we are emerging into the ...
Thursday, 12 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET RALLY COMES AT A GOOD TIME FOR MOST SHIP OWNERS - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The latest surge of the dry bulk market has helped offset other lingering factors, which otherwise, could have plunged freight rates to new lows. Fo ...
Wednesday, 11 September 13
ASIA - PACIFIC THERMAL COAL MARKET TO REMAIN OVERSUPPLIED IN NEXT 12 MONTHS - FITCH RATINGS
COALspot.com: Fitch Ratings says the Asia-Pacific thermal coal market will remain oversupplied in the next 12 months because strong production has b ...
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Australian Coal Association
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
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