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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 16 September 13
CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP: STABLE TO STEADY
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 16 September 13
INDONESIAN SUB-BIT COAL SWAP STRUGGLING TO FINDS THE RIGHT PATH
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 0.75 percept month on month on Friday 13 Septe ...
Sunday, 15 September 13
CAPE FREIGHT RATES RISE ON HIGH DEMAND AND TIGHT AVAILABILITY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The BDI, Cape and Panamax indices are continued to rise and saw a steep surge with average index in these segments up around 25 pct w ...
Friday, 13 September 13
US COAL OUTPUT SLIPS 3.34% ON-WEEK
COALspot.com – United states the world’s second largest coal producer produced totaled approximately 20.20 million short tons (mmst) of ...
Friday, 13 September 13
DIRECTOR GENERAL OF MINERAL AND COAL OF INDONESIA REVISED UP COAL PRICE REFERENCE TO US$ 76.89
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised up its owned coal bench mark price by US$ 0.19/ MT to US$ 76.89 for September 2013 deliveries ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The University of Queensland
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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