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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 September 13
BUMA PRODUCED 3.57 PERCENT MORE COAL IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: BUMA has removed totaled 25.20 million bcm of overburden to produce 2.90 million tons coal in August 2013. BUMI produced 3.07 percent ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED ABOUT 27 PERCENT MORE COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 27.26 per cent week on week to 3.01 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
TAIPOWER INVITES BIDS FOR SUPPLY OF SUB-BITUMINOUS COAL
COALspot.com - Taiwan Power Company intends to procure 1.050 million tons of sub-bituminous coal for Taipower thermal power plant through open tende ...
Tuesday, 17 September 13
ORPHEUS SECURES SIGNIFICANT INFRASTRUCTURE DEAL THROUGH ACQUISITION OF SOUTH KALIMANTAN PORT CAPACITY
COALspot.com : Orpheus Energy Limited (ASX: OEG) of Australia has today announced that, it has executed a binding agreement with the proprietor of S ...
Monday, 16 September 13
WHAT RECOVERY MEANS FOR THE CAPESIZE MARKET - COMMODORE RESEARCH
COALspot.com: The simple fact that capesize rates have been able to increase above the $9,000/mark and become much more responsive to changes in car ...
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- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PTC India Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
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