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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
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