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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Planning Commission, India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
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