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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 27 September 13
TAIWAN'S FORMOSA TO IMPORT 140K MT OF BITUMINOUS COAL FOR Q4
COALspot.com : Taiwan's Formosa Plastics Group is inviting bids for 140,000 mt of bituminous coal for delivery in the Q4 for its China plant.
Ac ...
Friday, 27 September 13
CAPESIZES REGAINING PART OF THEIR FORMER GLORY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The latest dry bulk market rally has been nothing short of spectacular, with freight rates more than doubling over the past few weeks. This growth h ...
Friday, 27 September 13
US PRODUCED 19.30 MMST OF COAL IN SEVEN DAYS
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.30 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
PANAMAX MARKET CONTINUE WITH STRONG RATES IN BOTH BASINS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Feast rates are still firm, some fresh stems entered the market. Vessels trading around $15k passing Singapore for coal to India, and a bit l ...
Thursday, 26 September 13
INTERCARGO PUBLISHES BENCHMARKING BULK CARRIERS 2012-13 REPORT
The International Association of Dry Cargo Shipowners (Intercargo) has today launched Benchmarking Bulk Carriers 2012-13, the latest edition of our ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PTC India Limited - India
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