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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 22 September 13
BDI STRENGTHENS FURTHER AS CAPESIZE FREIGHT RATES JUMP - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com: The freight market continued its upward trend and maintaining the moment with BDI and Cape index up by 16 pct week on week. The Capesi ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS ADVANCE
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 22 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAPS REMAIN UNDER PRESSURE
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery down 2.09 percept month on month on Friday 20 September 2 ...
Friday, 20 September 13
SHIP OWNERS INVEST MORE THAN $9.2 BILLION ON NEW BUILDING VESSELS DURING AUGUST - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
Despite the fact that August is traditionally a slow month in terms of ships investment activity, ship owners have grasped this year the opportunity ...
Friday, 20 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET REACHES NEW HEIGHTS THIS WEEK STANDING AT THREE-YEAR HIGH - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
The biggest rally of the dry bulk market in more than three years have brought back joy among ship owners, especially those active in the Capesize m ...
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- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
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- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Australian Coal Association
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- White Energy Company Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
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- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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