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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
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- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
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- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
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- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
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- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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- The University of Queensland
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- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Economic Council, Georgia
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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