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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Australian Coal Association
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
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