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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 01 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET POISED FOR RETREAT ON CHINA HOLIDAY - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The start of a national weeklong in China as of Tuesday is expected to put a lid in the latest rally of the dry bulk freight market, as has always b ...
Monday, 30 September 13
NEWCASTLE'S COAL EXPORT VOLUME CONTINUES TO SLIP
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 8.38 per cent week on week to 2.67 million mt fo ...
Monday, 30 September 13
PANAMAX CHARTER RATES TOUCHING US$ 18K FOR A TRIP TO NOPAC - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The freight market continued to remain firm, BDI and the Panamax index up week ended 27 September 2013.
The cape index was fell to ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL Q3 2014 DELIVERY SWAP GAINED $1.19 M-O-M
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Sunday, 29 September 13
SUB-BIT INDONESIA COAL SWAP FELL ON MONTH AND WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 3.93 percept month on month on Friday 27 September 2 ...
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- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The University of Queensland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
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