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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
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