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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Planning Commission, India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
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