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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 26 September 13
DRY BULK MARKET KEEPS ON RALLYING ON THE BACK OF HIGH CAPESIZE DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept its momentum over the course of the past week, on the back of increased demand for Capesizes and an improvement of mark ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
RBCT'S COAL EXPORT DECLINES IN AUGUST
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) is the single largest coal export terminal in South African as well as in the world has shipped 16. ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
CAPES TOUCHING RATES NO ONE BELIEVED COULD BE ACHIEVED IN 2013 - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+ )
The Dry Bulk market is the gift that keeps on giving these days. With rates for Capes touching numbers ...
Wednesday, 25 September 13
IS IT TIME AGAIN TO SUPERSIZE AGAIN? - GEORGE LAZARIDIS
After an early arrival of the seasonal rally in the Capesize market, things look to be on the upbeat for these dry bulk giants. With the Index reach ...
Monday, 23 September 13
AUSTRALIA'S NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 3 PERCENT LESS COAL WEEK ON WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port fell 3 per cent week on week to 2.92 million mt for t ...
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- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Planning Commission, India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
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