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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The University of Queensland
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Australian Coal Association
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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