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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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