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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 04 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION UP 2.1% WEEK ON WEEK - EIA
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
INDONESIA AUGUST COAL EXPORTS FALL 12.90 % FROM JULY TO 30.71 MIL MT
COALspot.com: Indonesia, the 15th largest economy in world, 4th largest coal producer in world and world's largest multi grade coal exporter ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
TOP FOUR U.S. COAL COMPANIES SUPPLIED MORE THAN HALF OF U.S. COAL PRODUCTION IN 2011 - EIA
In the past two years, more than half of U.S. coal production was attributable to the top four coal producers, the result of changes in regional pro ...
Thursday, 03 October 13
HANDY: PERIOD MARKET STAND IN GOOD POSITION - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Nickel ore and Bauxite was active last week but slowed down now due to Chinese holidays. Ships opened in North China fixed at US$ 11-13k leve ...
Wednesday, 02 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET IS STILL MAINTAINING ITS UPWARD DIRECTION
Chartering (Wet: Stable- / Dry: Firm+)
Despite the fact that rates for Capes didn't continue their crazy ride this past week, the Dry Bulk market ...
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- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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