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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 07 October 13
SGX - CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAPS END ALMOST FLAT
COALspot.com : SGX has launched API 8 CFR South China Coal Swap on 29 April 2013 and SGX replaced the previous swap.
API 8 CFR South China Coal s ...
Monday, 07 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT FOB INDONESIA COAL SWAP CLOSED 6.53% HIGHER THAN Q4'13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery gained 0.53 % on day and fell 2.33 percept month on month ...
Sunday, 06 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT MARKET STAYS STEADY IN SPITE CHINESE HOLIDAYS - SOLYM CARRIERS SINGAPORE
COALspot.com: The freight market continued to remain firm in spite of Chinese holidays.
The BDI closed at 2,084 points on Friday 4 October or up ...
Saturday, 05 October 13
CAPESIZE EARNINGS SKYROCKET AS A RESULT OF INCREASED CHINA DEMAND - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
An increased iron ore demand has triggered this latest dry bulk rally, which could get yet another boost during next week, when China is expected to ...
Friday, 04 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS - LESSONS LEARNED FROM LOSSES
One of the most pressing problems for the bulk shipping industry is the safe carriage of nickel ore. The increasing demand for this commodity is fue ...
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- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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