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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
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- Australian Coal Association
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Planning Commission, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
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