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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 10 October 13
SEVERAL PANAMAX FIXTURES FOR 1 YEAR TC HAVE BEEN REPORTED AROUND $13.5K/DAY - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
The market is not much fancy as several holidays in the Far East last week. Tonnage side seems tight in SE Asia but there are many of them in ...
Wednesday, 09 October 13
PANAMAX: FIRM ; FIXING ACTIVITY INCREASED IN BOTH BASINS - INTERMODAL
This was another week of gains for the Dry Bulk market, albeit very modest ones compared to the previous ones. Charterers and owners struggled for t ...
Tuesday, 08 October 13
CHINA: INTENSE COMPETITION AMONG DOMESTIC COAL MINERS AS 2013 IMPORT DEMAND REMAINS STRONG - WOOD MACKENZIE
Prices will not fall under RMB500/t or risk supply availability to the coastal market
Despite China's lower economic growth, Wood Mackenzie says ...
Monday, 07 October 13
RICHARD BAY COAL TERMINAL SHIPPED 49.94 MMT OF COAL YTD
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the world's single largest coal terminal has shipped 49,946,509 mt of coals YTD, according to por ...
Monday, 07 October 13
SOUTH AFRICA'S RBCT SHIPPED 7.94% MORE COAL IN SEPT' 13
COALspot.com - Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT), the single largest coal export terminal in South Africa as well as in the world has shipped 7.94 p ...
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- London Commodity Brokers - England
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Minerals Council of Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- The University of Queensland
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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