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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
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- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- White Energy Company Limited
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
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