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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Sunday, 13 October 13
API 8 CFR SOUTH CHINA COAL - AVERAGE Q4 2013 DELIVERY FELL 0.30 PERCEPT ON WEEK
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.30 percept week on week on Friday 11 October 2013. The CFR South ...
Saturday, 12 October 13
PANAMAX: OWNERS ARE AT US$ 17-18.5K PER DAY; CHARTERERS ARE AT US$ 15.5-16K - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com - The futures market was heavily down on the cape size vessels and the physical average charterer rates on cape size vessels dropped by ...
Friday, 11 October 13
DRY BULK FREIGHT RATE POSITIVE MOMENTUM TO BE SUPPORTED BY HIGHER DEMAND SAYS BIMCO - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
BIMCO released its latest short term research on the shipping markets, estimating that the elevated level of Capesize TC average rates i ...
Friday, 11 October 13
US COAL PRODUCTION FALLS 7.70% IN SEPTEMBER
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 17.70 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 10 October 13
NPC AUSTRALIA SHIPPED 2.99 MILLION TONS OF COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 12.04 per cent week on week to 2.99 million mt for ...
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- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
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