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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
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- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Australian Coal Association
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The University of Queensland
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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