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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 15 October 13
CHINA COAL IMPORTS TO KEEP GROWING IN THE YEARS TO COME, ALBEIT AT A SLOWER RATE - EVA TZIMA / NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING
In its latest monthly report, shipbroker Intermodal highlighted the growing role of coal in the energy mix. According to Intermodal's research anal ...
Tuesday, 15 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SHIPPED 6.50% MORE COAL W-O-W
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 6.50 per cent week on week to 3.19 million mt for ...
Monday, 14 October 13
MEMR OF INDONESIA SETS THE COAL'S SPOT PRICE AT US$ 76.61 FOR OCT'13 DELIVERY
COALspot. com - The Indonesian government has revised down government declared coal bench mark price by US$ 0.28/ MT to US$ 76.61 for October 2013 d ...
Monday, 14 October 13
CARBON POLICIES UNLIKELY TO PREVENT A COAL-FUELLED WORLD - WOOD MACKENZIE
China will propel coal growth but US, Europe and Asia will sustain global demand.
At the World Energy Congress (WEC) today Wood Mackenzie's Pres ...
Sunday, 13 October 13
Q4'13 DELIVERY SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP FALLS SEVEN STRAIGHT WEEK
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 1.72 percept month on month on Friday 11 October 201 ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Australian Coal Association
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- PTC India Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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