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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- The University of Queensland
- VISA Power Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Australian Coal Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Planning Commission, India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
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