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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 October 13
CHINA'S COAL IMPORTS DOWN 9.4% TO 25.96 MMT IN AUGUST
COALspot.com: China's August Imported coal volumes down 9.4% m-m but up 27% y-y, BNP said in its latest China Coal & Power report released on 1 ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
NEW STRATEGIES AND OPPORTUNITIES IN A RAPIDLY EVOLVING COAL INDUSTRY
The 12th Annual Coal Markets assumes even more significance as the industry seeks more market information, inputs on trade strategies, supply and de ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
CAPES: RATES DROPPED; PANAMAX: ADVANCED - INTERMODAL
After a month and a half of straight weekly positive closings, the BDI has finished the week in the red. Monday started slow as holidays in the East ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
WILL THIS LATEST DRY BULK MARKET UPTREND PROVE TO BE AS LONG-LIVED OR JUST ANOTHER MOMENTARY SPIKE? - CHRISTOS MANZTIOS
COALspot.com: So here we are again facing the same old question: Will this latest market uptrend prove to be as long-lived as all owners hope or jus ...
Wednesday, 16 October 13
KOSEP TO IMPORT 0.49 MILLION TONS OF 4600 NAR COAL FOR JAN - FEB '14
COALspot.com - Korea South-East Power Co., a Korean generator and distributor of electricity on behalf of five Korean Gencos intends to procure 490, ...
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- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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