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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 18 October 13
WOOD MACKENZIE FORECASTS CHINA WILL OUTWEIGH THE REST OF THE WORLD FOR BASE METALS DEMAND BY 2017
China set to account for 52% of 117mt base metals market by 2017
China is on track to exceed rest of the World demand by 2017, becoming the singl ...
Friday, 18 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET ON "PAUSE" MODE - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has been on "pause" mode over the past week, after China's return from the week long holidays. The industry's benchm ...
Friday, 18 October 13
US PRODUCED 6.7% MORE COAL W-W
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 18.9 million short tons (mmst) of coal in a ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
CAPESIZE: RATES ARE AGAIN MOVING UPWARDS - FEARNRESEARCH
Handy
Activities were obviously slowed down in the Pacific basin. There were only few coal movements which fixed around USD 15-16k for ships in Sin ...
Thursday, 17 October 13
SGX TO LAUNCH "SGX THERMAL COAL FUTURES" NEXT MONDAY
COALspot.com: SGX is to launch two thermal coal futures contracts, SGX API 8 CFR China Coal Index Futures and SGX IHS McCloskey Indonesian Sub-bit F ...
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- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- The University of Queensland
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PTC India Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Australian Coal Association
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
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