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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 22 October 13
NEWCASTLE PORT SERVED 38 OCEAN GOING VESSELS IN A WEEK
COALspot.com: Power plant and semi-soft coking coal shipments from Australia's Newcastle port up 0.64 per cent week on week to 3.21 million mt for ...
Tuesday, 22 October 13
KOWEPO INVITED BIDS FOR MULTI GRADE COAL
COALspot.com - Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO), a Korean electricity generator intends to procure 240,000 tons of multi grade coal for its Ta ...
Monday, 21 October 13
SOUTH CHINA COAL SWAP FOR 2014 DELIVERIES SHOW A POSITIVE TREND
COALspot.com : API 8 CFR South China Coal swaps for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.02 percept M-M on Friday 18 October 2013. The CFR South China Co ...
Sunday, 20 October 13
Q3'14 SUB-BIT INDO COAL SWAP CLOSED AT $ 61.80 PMT W/E 18 OCT' 13
COALspot.com – Sub-Bit Indonesia coal swap (FOB ) for average Q4 2013 delivery fell 0.93 percept month on month on Friday 18 October 201 ...
Saturday, 19 October 13
NICKEL ORE SHIPMENTS KEEP SUPRAMAX CHARTER RATES STEADY - CAPT. REDDY
COALspot.com : The futures freight market continued to go down which was reflected in the physical markets as well.
The BDI continued to be soft ...
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- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- The University of Queensland
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
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