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Wednesday, 02 October 13
HOW LONG WILL THIS LATEST CAPESIZE RALLY LAST? - TASOS PAPADOPOULOS
 By Tasos Papadopoulos, SnP Broker, Intermodal
The surge in iron ore trade has translated into a massive boost in daily earnings for capes; with the demand for such vessels skyrocketing over the last couple of weeks. The gains noted for Capes are certainly impressive when considering that rates have recovered from below US$ 4,000/day noted back in June 2012!
As a comparison, this time last year, iron ore had “crashed” down to just US$ 86/tonne, in a sudden shift that took the industry by surprise. This had primarily been the drive for last year’s seasonal round of restocking, however it seems that it was nowhere close to the excessive demand witnessed over the past couple of days.
Capesize vessels provide the best insight into the health of the Chinese economy; and despite analysts having projected a slowdown in Chinese growth; China continues to import in order to replenish its supply. China's aggressive iron ore restocking has encouraged a surge in demand while near-term prospects remain promising!
China is forced to import iron ore, as their inventories have declined significantly, down by 27% from their February 2012 highs. There have been large volumes of Chinese buying and restocking from both Australia and - more importantly - Brazil and the year could end on a high note… But the question that's on everyone's mind at the moment is, how long will this latest Capesize rally last?
We expect Capesize rates to remain firm as long as Chinese iron ore restocking continues. Having said that, we have several examples from the recent past, where once the seasonal restocking process was over, we witnessed drops in freight rates which were just as quick as their preceding rise.
However, the present surge looks likely to be sustained for a bit longer, as it appears to be supported by improving fundamentals in China's steel production and consumption. All the evidence points towards the fact that steel production and consumption in China is to continue to steadily grow, maintaining China’s iron ore imports at healthy levels in respect to the supply of vessels.
What is worth highlighting here is, that for the moment, only iron ore demand has picked up considerably and it has mostly been Capesize owners that have basked in the sun, while there has been limited spill-over effects noted in the panamax sector and at the same time Supras and Handies seem to be mostly unaffected.
Will this boost in freight rates remain limited only to the larger segments or will we eventually see benefits trickle down to the smaller sizes?
For the moment it seems as though these surplus rates are a privilege only the Capes can indulge in and as we have yet to see any spikes in demand for commodities such as grain or coal, the mere positive sentiment created by higher earnings may not be enough yet to provide a solid foundation for a complete dry bulk market recovery...
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations | research@intermodal.gr
Analysts:
Mr. George Lazaridis | g.lazaridis@intermodal.gr
Ms. Eva Tzima | e.tzima@intermodal.gr
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no re-producing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 25 October 13
U.S. YEAR-TO-DATE COAL PRODUCTION REACHED TOTALLED 803.1 MMST
COALspot.com – United States the world’s second largest coal producer produced approximately 19.10 million short tons (mmst) of coal in ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
PANAMAX: RATES SLIP ACROSS BOTH HEMISPHERES
Handy
We were back from holidays but still not much enquiries in the market. Overall future direction is uncertain. Currently, ships passing Singap ...
Thursday, 24 October 13
SHIP PRICES ARE INCREASING ON THE BACK OF IMPROVED MARKET SENTIMENT - NIKOS ROUSSANOGLOU, HELLENIC SHIPPING NEWS
The dry bulk market has kept on retreating from its recent highs, ending yesterday at 1,786 points, down 61 points on the day, with Capesizes leadin ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
DRY BULK MARKET HAS SHOWN SIGNS OF STABILITY - INTERMODAL
Chartering (Wet: Stable+ / Dry: Stable-)
The Dry Bulk market has shown signs of stability this past week, with the sole exception of Capes, rates f ...
Wednesday, 23 October 13
MARKET SENTIMENT IN THE DRY BULK SECTOR REMAINS POSITIVE - YANNIS OLZIERSKY
Market sentiment in the dry bulk sector remains positive despite the latest correction in freight rates for the Capesize sector, which are sliding f ...
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- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Australian Coal Association
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
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